Using Scenario Analysis to model your CBAM exposure
Scenario Analysis lets you model hypothetical CBAM costs in throwaway “sandbox” scenarios. You can test sourcing options, compare suppliers or estimate the cost of a planned order without touching your real data. Sandbox data never affects your real exposure figures or your declarations.
You’ll find it in the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism module, under Scenario Analysis in the left-hand menu.
Create a scenario
Click New scenario, give it a name, and select the year and quarter you want to model (for example, Q1 2026). Every scenario shows a Sandbox tag next to its name, so it’s always clear you’re working with hypothetical data.
Add transactions
There are two ways to add transactions to a scenario.
Add a single transaction. Click Add transaction and enter the CN code, country of origin, import date and tonnage. You can also add a product name, a supplier and an installation if you want to. If you leave the supplier blank, the transaction is priced using the default value for that CN code and country of origin. If you choose a supplier and installation that have shared emissions data with you, their actual data is used instead.
Bulk upload from a CSV. Click Bulk upload, then Download template CSV to get the correct format. The file needs a header row with these columns, in any order:
Column | Required? | Format |
| Required | 2-letter ISO code, e.g. CN |
| Required | No spaces, e.g. 76011000 |
| Required | Number, in tonnes |
| Required | YYYY-MM-DD |
| Optional | Blank uses the country default |
| Optional |
|
| Optional |
|
Uploaded rows are added to the scenario, and any transactions already there are kept.
Each transaction can be changed or removed with the Edit and Delete actions in its row. Click Export to download all the underlying transaction data for the scenario.
Search and filter transactions
Use the search bar to find transactions by CN code, product or supplier. You can also filter by:
Origin: the country of production.
Supplier: the supplier linked to the transaction.
Data type: whether the transaction uses actual supplier data or Default values. A transaction shows as Default when no supplier is matched or when the matched supplier hasn’t shared actual data.
Read the headline figures
Four summary cards at the top of each scenario show:
Total CBAM cost: the blended cost estimate across all transactions.
Total volume imported: total tonnage and the number of transactions.
Average cost per tonne: total cost divided by total volume.
Potential savings vs defaults: how much you save by using matched suppliers’ actual data compared with the default-value worst case. This shows £0 / €0 until at least one transaction is matched to a supplier with actual data.
Adjust supplier matching
Click Adjust matching to link transactions to a specific supplier and installation from the installation data you have in CarbonChain. This includes suppliers in My Suppliers and the Supplier Catalogue. Where actual emissions data is available, the scenario is repriced with it, and your potential savings against defaults update to match.
View the long-term cost analysis
Click Show cost analysis to see what the scenario’s import flow would cost from 2026 to 2034. The model treats your scenario as an order that repeats every year. It prices each year using the estimated carbon price and the CBAM phase-in, so you can see how your exposure grows as free allocation is phased out. The chart shows the annual cost as bars and the cumulative cost as a line, with the cumulative 2026–2034 total shown below. Hover over any year to see its figures.
Switch between EU and UK CBAM
Use the EU (€) / UK (£) toggle at the top of the scenario to switch the same transactions between EU CBAM costs in euros and UK CBAM costs in pounds. This makes it easy to compare your exposure under both regimes.
Delete a scenario
When you no longer need a scenario, click Delete scenario. This only removes the sandbox scenario and its transactions. Your real exposure and declarations are not affected.
Scenario Analysis gives estimates only. They are not verification-grade and should not be used for declarations. Sample template of transactions below: